• Harsh Patel, CFA

Let’s See Those Numbers 💰



Earnings Season Underway


A number of companies across the world reported third quarter earnings this week, kicking off the Q3 earnings season for companies across the world. Expect lots of individual stocks and even broader stock markets to move around over the next 4-6 weeks in response to companies’ financial updates!


This week was positive overall with a number of large companies reporting earnings that were better than expected, but things hang in the balance as there were also some which underperformed relative to expectations. For those of you keen to know more about the individual movers and shakers, we’ve provided some of the standout names towards the bottom of this email! đŸ€“Â 


Why Expectations Matter


If you’ve ever noticed earnings reports being measured versus analyst and investor expectations, and wondered why that was the case - we’ve got you covered below.

  • The Rationale:

  • Ahead of an earnings reporting period, companies tend to provide guidance on how their business is doing, and along with that rough indications of how much revenue and earnings they expect to generate in the coming quarter. 

  • Analysts and investors take this information away and update their thinking to come up with expectations of what a company’s value should be - presumably the people best placed to give you an idea of how the company is doing are the people who are responsible for running the company!

  • Share prices consequently adjust to reflect the latest set of expectations.

  • The next major update comes from the company when it files its earnings report - where the company’s actual financial statements are made available for all to see.

Going into an earnings reporting event, expectations matter because they usually drive the share price to wherever it might be ahead of the report. Once the report is published, share prices move if the result is significantly different from what had been expected by investors / analysts.

  • The Q3 2019 Earnings Season

  • With that in mind, going into the latest earnings season, expectations have been set fairly low - with data compiled by FactSet showing average expectations of a 4.6% decline in Q3 2019 earnings versus the same period last year for S&P500 companies overall.

  • That’s a pretty low base - these timid expectations set a lower earnings bar for companies to metaphorically jump over. 

  • Something worth remembering when companies you follow outperform versus consensus estimates but see relatively modest share price increases! And it might be even more important to bear in mind if companies you follow miss the low-bar of expectations and see share prices plummet in the aftermath 😰

Looking Ahead to Next Week


The pace of earnings releases will ramp up from next week, with more than 250 large cap companies around the world due to report their latest financials. We’ve picked a few of the largest potential market movers out for you below.


Notable US companies will include:


Amazon, AT&T, Boeing, Coca Cola, Comcast, Google, Intel, McDonalds, Microsoft, Procter & Gamble.


Notable European companies will include:


AB-InBev, AstraZeneca, BASF, Daimler, Eni, Iberdrola, Novartis, SAP, Reckitt Benckiser.


Bonus: Let’s zoom out for a minute


Earnings season is just one (pretty important) part of the broader puzzle here. 


It’s sometimes also helpful to contextualise this information with respect to other forces at play, so we’ve listed the major themes below, with at least one or more theme likely having some kind of impact on the stocks you’re following.

  • What’s Helping Global Financial Markets:

  • De-escalation of US-China trade tensions

  • Global monetary policy pivot - central bankers are looking at reducing interest rates and other options again in order to provide stimulus to the slowing global economy

  • Increased recognition of the need for fiscal policy to play a bigger role - the IMF has been making the point again this week

  • A seemingly strong US labor market and US consumer confidence

  • Positioning/sentiment - following recent market declines (remember 2 weeks ago when everyone was running for the hills screaming recession?), there’s a case to be made that stocks are trading relatively cheap right now. That is, if you aren’t too worried by the following...

  • What’s hurting Global Financial Markets:

  • Global growth slowdown - this is the big one. In recent weeks we’ve seen slowing manufacturing and investment in the US and China, and signs of a creaking European economy too

  • Uncertainty around next steps in the US-China trade war - this is clearly having an impact on the levels of manufacturing and investment being made by companies - a key driver of the above mentioned global growth slowdown. 

  • Skepticism about ability of monetary policy to counter trade and structural headwinds - can central banks really help boost the economy and all its perceived problems simply by cutting interest rates and printing more money? Time will tell.

As always, we’ll be watching! đŸżđŸ„€

What Else is Going On?


Trade War

Partial Deal Reached đŸ€...Kind Of


The US & China seem to have come to a partial trade deal - it’s yet to be signed - but the positive mood music coming out of last week’s high level meetings has been welcomed by financial markets globally. The deal itself isn’t comprehensive at this stage, but if signed, will signify major progress on agriculture, intellectual property, access to Chinese financial markets and new rules on currency management. Most importantly for now, the latest round of October tariffs have been cancelled, and there is potential for the planned December US tariffs to also be cancelled. But we’ve been here twice before - and seen these trade truces - only for both countries to walk away. It may be a case of 3rd time lucky, but we wouldn’t count on that until pen has been put to paper and a (partial) deal has been signed 🖊 



Brexit

Light At The End Of The Tunnel? 🔎


The EU & UK have agreed to a deal - almost identical to the one Theresa May negotiated previously, but with the contentious Irish backstop now replaced with new customs arrangements which will avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. While this is a significant milestone, the real barrier remains in Westminster, with PM Boris Johnson unlikely to have the majority he needs to get his deal approved by the UK Parliament. All eyes are now on the debates which will take place in the House of Commons today - the first Saturday MPs have been called into the House in more than three decades. What happens next is anyone’s guess, but you can expect the GBP rollercoaster to continue regardless, and a General Election or Second Referendum seem highly likely if Boris fails to get his deal approved in Parliament.



Chinese GDP

6% Growth? Not Good Enough 👎


The Chinese economy grew by 6% between July-September, compared with the same period last year - lower than the forecasted 6.1%. While that would be something to shout from the rooftops about for almost every Western economy, it’s a somewhat worrying sign for the world’s largest economy as it represents the slowest pace of economic growth in China in almost 3 decades. The slowdown was driven by lower investment growth, although factory output and retail sales did just fine. Despite the ongoing trade war clearly having an impact on the economy, the 3rd quarter slowdown leaves year-to-date Chinese GDP growth at 6.2%, which is still within the 6.0% - 6.5% zone that the Chinese Communist Party is targeting in 2019. Overall, not ideal given a slowing Chinese economy usually translates into a slowing global economy, but it isn’t exactly reason to panic either đŸ€·â€â™‚ïž



Saudi Aramco

Another IPO Delay 🛱


The world’s biggest company and its largest-in-history-IPO has been delayed, again. The IPO was due to launch this weekend, but has been delayed by a few weeks in order to allow analysts and investors access to its Q3 earnings results. The company hopes to show investors it is capable of operating and generating strong profits despite the drone attack on its oil processing facilities last month. Saudi Aramco is expected to raise around $40bn from the IPO share sale, and it’ll need to pull out all the stops in order to secure an IPO market cap close to its targeted $2 trillion level.



Earnings Season

Good - Bad - Ugly 📈📉


With Q3 earnings season now underway, we’ll leave you with a few notable earnings related movers this week:


The Good: Avast, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, Bank of America


The Bad: Evraz, Goldman Sachs, IBM, InterContinental Hotels


The Ugly: Renault take the prize this week, with a cut in sales and profit guidance for 2019 driving shares down around 12% on Friday to reach their lowest levels since 2013. The news also drove other European carmakers lower, with investors worried that more profit warnings could also follow. Danone was a close second.


Please know, the value of investments can go up as well as down and you may receive back less than your original investment, meaning, when investing your capital is at risk.

Disclaimer: At Evarvest we believe in making investing and investment education more accessible, but we don’t provide investment advice and individual investors should make their own decisions. While we try our best, we cannot ensure the accuracy of the information we provide.


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At Evarvest we believe in making investing and investment education more accessible, but we don’t provide investment advice and individual investors should make their own decisions.

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Any and all information produced by Evarvest Limited (Company No. 12544579) is copyright protected, and while we try our best, we cannot ensure the accuracy of the information we provide.

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Please know, the value of investments can go up as well as down and you may receive back less than your original investment. Further, the tax on your investments depends on your individual circumstances and may be subject to change.  

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Evarvest Limited refers to the Evarvest network and / or one or more of its subsidiaries, each of which is a separate legal entity.